Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu May 21 18:58:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I worry about, if cases remain steady/declining, is people concluding "re-opening doesn't raise transmission" when the more likely conclusion is "re-opening does raise transmission, but is being counteracted by other factors that lower transmission". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarcusHUSA It depends on the state, but, yeah that's another ambiguity. Some states are counting tests and some are counting people. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a corollary, projections that model the impact of re-opening *without* accounting for the other factors (e.g. mask-wearing, weather, increased testing/tracing) may contribute to the problem if they wind up looking overly pessimistic later. So maybe be a bit careful with those. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2020 Hibernated