Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu May 21 16:12:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Re-doing some old research on VP picks and one thing that's pretty clear is that there's a bigger home-state effect if the VP comes from a smaller state. The same holds for presidential candidates themselves. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Unless states are only listing their antibody negatives but not their antibody positives, which I don't *think* is the case in most places but may be the case in Georgia, which apparently treats antibody positives as probable cases. https://t.co/G0N86TR36r — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A good rule of thumb is that a VP is worth a net of 20/EV percentage points in their home state, where EV is the number of electoral votes. So, e.g. Pence is worth 20/11 = ~1.8 points to Trump in Indiana. Or Whitmer would be worth 20/16 = ~1.3 points to Biden in Michigan. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 21, 2020 Hibernated