Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Fri May 15 22:19:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Could we see spikes? Sure, it's possible. The magnitude of the effects on transmission rates in going from stricter to medium social distancing (no places are going totally "back to normal" yet) is uncertain. So are all of the parameters in the tweet above. Lots of uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Moreover, the re-openings are coming at a time when there are other, mostly helpful factors in play —Mask-wearing ↑ —Warmer weather may help —Testing and tracing ↑ —Susceptible population is a bit lower in some hard-hit cities/groups where decent #'s of people already had it — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But it's also possible the effects could be something like "cases decline slowly, when they would have declined quickly if measures had remained in place" or "cases slowly increase, when they would have slowly declined". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 15, 2020 Hibernated