Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 2, 2020

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Tue May 12 18:27:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is in the weeds a bit, but it's not clear that we should expect likely voter polls to be much different than registered voter polls. Historically, Republicans tend to gain 1-2 points on Democrats in LV polls. But challengers tend to gain 1-2 points relative to incumbents. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It looks like people had to volunteer a "don't know" response instead of it being prompted in the question, which may overstate the degree of confidence but.... yeah. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So with a Republican incumbent this year and a Democratic challenger, those effects might roughly cancel out. FWIW, there also wasn't a big LV vs. RV spread in 2016 and 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 12, 2020 Hibernated