Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Wed May 06 21:51:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is this? If you're a state that had LOTS of cases then two things happen: 1) People are scared so social distancing is stricter and people abide by it more. 2) Some nontrivial fraction of your population is likely immune, at least for some period, which helps at the margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One observation related to this: States that have seen clear declines in new cases tend *either* to have had either a LOT of cases early on (e.g. NY, LA) or very FEW cases (e.g. MT, HI). The states in the middle (e.g. MD/VA) aren't seeing much, if any, decline, conversely. — PolitiTweet.org

I agree with all the very smart expert plans that use a sustained decline in cases as one of the criteria for re-op… https://t.co/9Z6SNXLDc1

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Conversely, if you're a state like Hawaii that never had many cases to begin with, it probably means you have some intrinsic geographic, etc. advantages that keeps transmission low. Also, with a low absolute # of cases you can do much better contact tracing, which helps a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated