Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Wed May 06 14:57:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe we go from a 25 to 35 or 40 in the "opening up" states...and in the "closed" states, maybe we go from 25 to 30 or 35 anyway because per a variety of data, people are getting fatigued with social distancing and it's hard to stop people from e.g. going to a friend's place. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if 0 is a strict Wuhan or Italy-style lockdown and 100 is "oblivious pre-COVID life", we are not going from 0 to 100. We were never *at* 0, for one thing; many activities were still allowed under lockdown. So let's say we were at a 25. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is why I'm urging caution about what to expect in the data from states that "open up". It's not that I think opening up is a good idea—I think most states should wait. It's because the scope is narrow enough that it MAY get swamped by other factors because the data is noisy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated