Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Tue May 05 14:26:03 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an aside, our alternative measure of population density, which measures the average number of people who live within a 5 mile radius of you, appears to do better with coronavirus dynamics than the traditional ones. https://t.co/1tFbvumiRF — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, and keep in mind that the Apple data shows the *relative* change in movement. So let's say, ordinarily in Montana, you have 60 contacts with people per week and in NYC, you have 100. If you reduce them by 17% in Montana but 50% in NYC, you wind up with 50 in each place. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Might just be a non-linearity or interaction in the relationship? I could tell a story where decreas… https://t.co/j3HMpCIaWl

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, if you're looking at density, you really need to use some of natural logarithm. NYC might have, I don't know, 50-100% more COVID-relevant social interaction than Montana per capita. It doesn't have 15000% more or whatever you'd get from the raw density numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated