Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 14, 2020

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Wed Apr 29 21:35:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Generation 0: 2.5% newly infected Generation 1: 3.3% Generation 2: 3.7% Generation 3: 4.1% Generation 4: 4.3% Generation 5: 4.2% Generation 6: 3.9% Or something like that. Which would get you to 26% infected cumulatively. Actually higher, since some people had it before Gen 0. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A month is enough time for that 2.5% of cases to spread 5-6 times over. If cases were turning over with an R of 1.3 (maybe what you'd get with relaxed social distancing) that gradually declines because of increasing herd immunity, you'd wind up with something roughly like this: — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why aren't Stockholm's ICU's overwhelmed? Well, because ICU's being overwhelmed is a function of the *flow* and Stockholm's flow is never that high. Sweden *is* doing a lot of distancing, just not enough to get R < 1. It's the original "flatten the curve" strategy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2020 Hibernated