Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 7, 2020

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Fri Apr 24 16:30:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've also seen some tests that produce a third, "borderline" category instead of just positive and negative. It just goes to show that these tests are not exact & to some extent you face a trade-off between false positives and false negatives. https://t.co/hr3TBdaBAi — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The test used by NYC claims to have 93% specificity = a 7% false negative rate. That's a nontrivial problem. It may partly counteract the issue with false positives or even outweigh it, depending on the false positive rate and the true rate of infection. https://t.co/MUE08IzKT1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Deleted Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The next big issue is sampling. Is the study even purporting to capture a random sample of the population? If so, how successful is its strategy for doing that? And what are the likely biases? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated