Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 7, 2020

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Fri Apr 24 16:30:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Test accuracy has gotten the most discussion here. These tests aren't perfect. They produce false positives (it says you had it when you didn't) and false negatives (it says you didn't when you did). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, quick thread on the 3 major types of statistical issues in seroprevalence studies—that is, studies that try to figure out how many people had COVID-19, like the one released in NY yesterday. These are: 1) Test accuracy (false negatives/positives) 2) Sample selection 3) Lags — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Intuitively, the false positive problem should be easy to see. If a test produces, say, 1-2% false positives among healthy people, then results saying that 2-3% of people tested positive in a given region just won't really tell you very much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated