Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 7, 2020

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Thu Apr 23 18:12:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There definitely *are* success stories, foremost among them New York, Louisiana and Michigan. But in the average US state, it's not clear whether we're currently getting R<1. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I *am* trying to account for testing volume here, which is a lot of work. If you look at the estimated share of positive tests, it's still increasing in many places, or at least it was as of a few days ago. https://t.co/zIntxFJGXO — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, some of the success stories have factors that aren't easily replicated elsewhere. If ~20-25% of the NYC population had COVID-19, then herd immunity will knock down R somewhat, but that's not how you'd want to knock down R. Hot weather may have helped in Louisiana. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated