Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 6, 2020

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Wed Apr 22 20:37:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if you have some prior that the underlying data should be reasonably smooth and continuous, and the main challenge is that the estimates you get of the underlying function are noisy/stochastic, they can be useful. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOESS methods are often misused because they do not handle *true* discontinuities in the data very well, i.e. some huge event happens and there's a huge, essentially instantaneous shift in the polls. You *don't* necessarily want to smooth that over. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On Super Tuesday (3/3), maybe the last normal-ish day in American politics before COVID became the only story, Trump's approval rating was 43.3 and his disapproval was 52.7. Now? 43.6% approve and 52.4% disapprove. So he's lost his small bounce. https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 22, 2020 Hibernated