Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 6, 2020

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Tue Apr 21 22:44:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Generally the states doing better either: 1) are quite isolated (e.g. HI) 2) had very bad outbreaks already (e.g. MI), or 3) are in the Deep South, which may (?) reflect hotter weather If a state doesn't fall into one of those categories it may not be making much progress. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The list of *declining* states is harder because some states on the list haven't been great about reporting test volume. But some places that semi-robustly seem to be doing better include NY, VT, AK, HI, MI, MT. Probably LA too but their data on negative tests has been erratic. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One question we might ask from this is whether US-style social distancing is truly enough to get R<1 on its own, or instead it needs some "help" from herd immunity, warm weather, or — in some of these low-population states —geographic isolation + contact-tracing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated