Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 3, 2020

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Sun Apr 19 16:40:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Either way, that's not a ton of room to work with. It's good that R is meaningfully lower than 1, so cases are shrinking instead of growing, but it's unclear how much you can re-open while keeping it <=1. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

From eyeballing the recent data, I wonder if that's a hair too pessimistic. The deceleration across various metrics has been steeper over the past few days, maybe more in line with an 0.8 or 0.85. Italy claims to have a post-lockdown R of 0.8. https://t.co/KdVG69pH1n — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @kevin If you do it based on the share of positive tests, then R indeed looked like 0.9 for somer period of time, but the past few days look more like 0.8, which is also true for the new hospitalizations and deaths data. Don't know if that's the start of something or just a quirk. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 19, 2020 Hibernated