Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2020

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Fri Apr 17 20:14:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the medium-to-long run, though, "fairly flat but slightly growing" (Sweden) winds up being a LOT different than "fairly flat but slightly shrinking" (likely where most of the US and Western Europe are with current lockdown measures). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sweden *is* doing *some* social distancing and they have other advantages (e.g. low # of persons per household). So maybe their R is 1.2 or 1.3 or something. In the short run, an R of 1.2 may not look *that* different from one of, say, 0.8 or 0.9. Both will be fairly flat. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That doesn't *necessarily* mean Sweden's health care system will eventually be overwhelmed. I have no idea about that either way. It does mean that a large % of the Swedish population will eventually get COVID-19. In fact, that's what they're counting on: herd immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 17, 2020 Hibernated