Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Wed Apr 15 17:42:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) But we also want to know *when* deaths occur to see how the curve is bending. Going back and reporting/inferring a bunch of new deaths that actually occurred weeks ago could confuse this. So it's helpful to have a separate category. Also helpful to track when deaths occurred. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This would be good if true, in two senses: 1) We know there are many unreported deaths. Reasonable priors from all-cause mortality numbers seem to be that we're missing on the very rough order of 1/4 to 1/2 of the deaths (likely varies by location). https://t.co/NOF9LPNxE1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Thinking back to how I might have expected things to unfold a few weeks ago, it seems like we're in neither the best-case scenario or worst-case scenario but somewhere in between. FWIW, here are the things I've gotten more optimistic about. Pessimistic stuff in the next tweet. https://t.co/f4lSYc4Oy3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated