Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Wed Apr 15 14:55:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And about 1/2 to 1/3 as many ICU beds and ventilators as they originally projected. https://t.co/Y93lP4vhNa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something else I discovered about the IHME projections at the site listed below. They very sharply reduced their estimates of the number of hospitalizations. The current projections have only about 1/5 as many hospital beds required as their original ones. https://t.co/fT04dhj6xD https://t.co/fJnB9R68f6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In case you didn't read the earlier thread, this *doesn't* apply to deaths, and we shall see, but there is some reason for concern that the model might *under-predict* deaths instead. https://t.co/ji4cAIYNVl — PolitiTweet.org

Thread. It looks like the IHME model is fond of drawing curves that are quite symmetric, i.e. they expect deaths to… https://t.co/9Cd4K4z1zN

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated