Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 26, 2020

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Tue Apr 14 22:36:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik ^^^ Mostly talking about the models that look less rigorous here, often done by non-epidemiologists. The ones that IMO aspired to a higher standard, i.e. Imperial College, tended to be on the lower end of the range (i.e. 4-5% hospitalization rates). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik TBH it looks to me like *some* of the models just sort of plugged hospitalization rates from Wuhan/other early outbreaks without trying to account for underdetection, whereas conversely they were more thoughtful about underdetection when considering fatality rates. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The change in the rate of deaths has been pretty reliably lagging about a week behind the change in the number of newly-reported cases in the United States. In other words, whatever trend you see in the cases data tends to show up in the deaths data a week later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated