Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Apr 08 23:08:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, that doesn't quite hold up. Nobody knows (and nobody ever knew) exactly how many deaths there will be and the room for uncertainty remains wide, i.e. anywhere from mid-5-figures to low 7 figures. — PolitiTweet.org

The most cynical interpretation of all this, one I can't quite bring myself to accept, is they rolled out the model… https://t.co/5yrBcdMJ9l

Posted April 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe this is helpful: On Wed. 3/17, there were 22 newly-reported deaths in the US On Wed. 3/24, there were 225, or ~10x as many as on 3/17 On Wed. 3/31, there were 954, or ~4x as many as on 3/24 Today, Wed. 4/8, there were 1,797, or ~2x as many as on 3/31 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes There's also a lot of ambiguity about which deaths we're counting. IHME is projecting something rather specific: deaths in the 1st wave **assuming** we maintain relatively good social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 8, 2020 Hibernated