Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 9, 2020

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Mon Mar 30 17:40:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also: these folks estimate that European countries are variously detecting anywhere between 1.2% (the UK and Spain) and 20% (Norway) of their actual cases. That is, there is nearly a 20-fold difference in detection rates. — PolitiTweet.org

This would imply somewhere between 800K and 3.6m cases in the UK, as compared to a reported total of 22,000. That w… https://t.co/myhYZiQWf9

Posted March 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In certain respects, it's good in the long term if there are more undetected cases. It means the infection fatality rate and the rate of severe cases is lower. It also means later on there could be some benefits from herd immunity in some of the worst-affected areas (e.g. Spain). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If detection rates vary that much than it is NOT at all reliable to use the number of detected cases to compare countries (or states). Y'all really need to stop doing that until/unless you have a sense for how effective different places are at testing/detection. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 30, 2020 Hibernated