Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Sun Mar 29 15:49:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

An expert survey conducted ~2 weeks ago forecasted 200K deaths in the U.S., although with a *very* wide range of possibilities. Revised slightly upward to 246K this week. But Dr. Fauci's estimate of 100K+ deaths is broadly in line with the consensus. https://t.co/oMWfVdQVVd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NAChristakis @qasim_bukhari FWIW, this is a really weird paper and I don't know that their analysis is robust enough to support a conclusion like "extremely unlikely". They seem surprised that there is *any* spread in warm-weather areas but they don't really address whether the spread is *slower*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

**HOWEVER**: We are not just inert objects here, and the choices we make could make a huge difference, as the experts think anywhere from around 36K to 1.1m deaths is highly plausible. That's 30-fold difference in possible outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2020 Hibernated