Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Sat Feb 08 19:35:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not entirely clear to me that Biden would rather have Sanders win NH than Buttigieg. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other words, when it ran this AM and saw no change in polls, the model assumed the debate had no impact. Which is wrong; we can't tell yet if there's an impact. We've changed it so the model now assumes there's a lag of ~5 days before debates are fully priced into the polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it's simple at all. And even if it were, the fact that you wouldn't learn the identity of the not-Bernie candidate until *after Super Tuesday* (at which point 38% of delegates will have been chosen) is a huge advantage to Bernie. — PolitiTweet.org

Increasingly it seems pretty simple: This race has room for one Bernie and one Not-Bernie. We have basically have 2… https://t.co/H34Hzl2AJE

Posted Feb. 8, 2020 Hibernated