Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Sat Feb 08 19:13:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. Also related to the debate. This is a bit technical. Our model was handling the debate kind of stupidly, in that it assumed the impact would be realized in polls immediately. In the real world, of course, there's a lag because it takes several days to get new polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Ipsos Finally, BUTTIGIEG's numbers improved the most on perceived electability while BIDEN's fell quite a bit and dropped behind SANDERS. Also not great news for WARREN on this question, and her numbers elsewhere the survey were mixed. https://t.co/xUHbE07ux9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other words, when it ran this AM and saw no change in polls, the model assumed the debate had no impact. Which is wrong; we can't tell yet if there's an impact. We've changed it so the model now assumes there's a lag of ~5 days before debates are fully priced into the polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 8, 2020 Hibernated