Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 01:05:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @Nate_Cohn He is at 9% in national polls right now. A bit better than that in some Super Tuesday sta… https://t.co/HCCSkbBlk2 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think people vastly underestimate how hard it is to win a *pledged delegate majority* when getting a late start. He's hoping to use Super Tuesday as a boomerang, but at that point, ~37% of delegates will already have been chosen. At a contested convention, though? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @Nate_Cohn Our model does account for his spending, as well as his recent string of endorsements. These things help him in the model, slightly. However, historically, the polls are very close to being a random walk and these things only make a marginal difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated