Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2020

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Wed Jan 29 17:03:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) Even if his strategy "works", it's rather unlikely to work by producing a *pledged delegate majority*. We actually do have Bloomberg getting about 100 delegates in an average simulation. But very, very rarely does he get a majority... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a few overlapping interpretations of this: 1) Bloomberg is hard to model because there isn't any precedent for his strategy. 2) The fact that there's no precedent for his strategy means it very probably won't work. (continued...) — PolitiTweet.org

Mild surface-level wtf not backed up by anything in particular: Bloomberg not meriting his own line and being lumpe… https://t.co/9sbPn8e62p

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3b) And it's not even clear that Bloomberg is *trying* to get a majority, as opposed to winning at the convention (our model doesn't try to predict the winner of a brokered convention) or (perhaps more likely) using his delegates/influence to sway the outcome of a convention. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated