Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2020

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Tue Jan 28 22:28:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, our model is more optimistic on Sanders than some of the other statistical forecasts I've seen, I think because we tend to assume larger bounces from strong finishes in early states. But we put a lot into work into measuring bounces and think/hope our assumptions are smart! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen It would probably make the "no majority" chance go up a fair bit. But keep in mind that Bloomberg's polling average could easily go down, not up, after the early states vote and there's more earned media, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you wanna know whether there is still time for significant polling shifts in Iowa, the answer is basically yes.… https://t.co/lWTzHHPw2h — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated