Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2020

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Mon Jan 27 18:29:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In principle, if you want to argue say Candidate X has a 55% chance of beating Trump and Candidate Y has a 35% chance, that's at least a plausible magnitude for electability differences. Though in practice, it's hard/impossible to be that precise 10 months in advance, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm picking a bit on headlines here instead of the stories themselves but any time you're arguing "candidate X can't win the election", you're doing it wrong. We don't know that much about electability and what we do know suggests differences in candidates don't matter THAT much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Any of [Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, etc.] can beat Trump. And any of them can lose to Trump. If you think otherwise, you're extremely overconfident about how much is knowable about any of this. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated