Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Fri Jan 10 23:55:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And, here's our model updated after the DMR poll. Majority chances: Biden 37% (-4%) Sanders 24% (+2%) NO MAJORITY 14% (—) Warren 13% (+2%) Buttigieg 10% (—) https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser @PeteButtigieg It is pretty hard to say. We have Buttigieg having slowly but steadily declined for ~5 weeks now. The timing is not particularly suggestive of "wine caves" being especially effective as opposed to just generally higher scrutiny of him. But, it's certainly a plausible story. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser I mean, I would not call myself someone who's been super bullish on Buttigieg's chances, in the sense that he's arguably been overperforming the fundamentals a bit. It remains interesting to contemplate what would have happened if someone else (Booker, Klob) had surged instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 11, 2020 Hibernated