Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Tue Jan 07 14:40:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ordinarily you'd guess that more likely than not, *somebody* would have a polling surge. (Who? No idea. Could be a frontrunner, a middle-tier candidate, or someone on the fringes). With a busy non-primary news cycle (impeachment, Iran) that may be less likely than usual though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're no longer in the long run in the primaries. A *short term* polling swing, well-timed for Iowa and New Hampshire, could be a big deal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes He's consistently been high in Morning Consult's early state crosstab but it hasn't translated into the same success in actual early-state polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 7, 2020 Hibernated