Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Sat Jan 04 13:20:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trying not to make this too hindsight-is-20/20. There were reasons to be bullish on Harris. Warren and Buttigieg still have decent chances. The fluctuations in polls aren't super predictable. But Biden has been *leading the whole campaign* and rarely been covered like it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

…so the notion that Biden and/or Bernie are now making comebacks, which has become a common motif in campaign coverage, is semi-dubious. A big part of the story is they were somewhat ignored while the media chased shinier objects (e.g. Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Bloomberg). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The lack of polling makes everything really hard. Buttigieg *is* down 1 point in our national average since the debate and 2 points since a month ago, but that's not based on very many polls and none of that matters if he's holding up OK in Iowa and New Hampshire. — PolitiTweet.org

@AlxThomp Our recent narratives have been based more on chatter and crowd sizes than polling. Did Buttigieg lose so… https://t.co/yTEsoUmIvY

Posted Jan. 4, 2020 Hibernated