Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Thu Jan 02 12:11:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. All that said, the 4Q numbers we've seen so far seem broadly in line with reasonable expectations given what else we knew about the race, e.g. that Bernie gained in the polls while Warren lost quite a bit of ground. The exception I think is Yang? (I was not expecting $16.5m.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. As mentioned recently, I've changed a bit (after doing a ton of research for our primary model) on my view of the overall predictive power of fundraising in the primaries. While polls are *by far* the most predictive indicator, $ is probably as important as e.g. endorsements. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol For our model we"ll calculate fundraising 3 ways: as a share of small donor money raised, as a share of all money raised from individual donors, and finally as a share of all money regardless of source (including self-financing). So Bloomberg and Steyer get *some* credit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2020 Hibernated