Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Tue Dec 17 21:08:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, people's intuitions are pretty good! We estimate that a debate moves the polls about as much as a week's worth (technically 7.5 days, but in practice the estimate isn't that precise) of campaigning. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JedKolko @mattyglesias I mean I think this is one of those cases where the rules are more or less designed to codify intuitive judgment and if they aren't doing a good job of that, they're probably wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We also find that debates produce a decent amount of reversion toward the mean (which we calculate based "fundamentals": a candidate's endorsements, money raised, and experience). They can sometimes serve as a reset for candidates who are over-performing or underperforming. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated