Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Tue Dec 17 18:07:50 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lots of national polls this week, but just one Iowa poll, one NH poll, one SC poll and zero NV polls so far in all of December. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol One thing I think people miss is that the probability of a "becoming a factor" isn't the same thing as actually winning. There's a decent shot Klobuchar becomes a factor in IA. But many of those times result in her finishing 2nd/3rd there, or winning IA but losing NH/NV/SC, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's check people's intuitions here. I'll reveal the answer based on our research later. A primary debate has about as much impact on the polls as ___ of ordinary campaigning*? * Ordinary campaigning excludes the impact of primaries/caucuses & candidates entering/dropping out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated