Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Mon Dec 16 21:05:45 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah people always read these charts as "WOW SO UNPREDICTABLE!!!!" but you can also read it as "40% chance of Biden" which is much higher than the conventional wisdom. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It could be noise. It could also be that Trump is staying relatively quiet *apart* from impeachment. But a plausible story is that voters dislike the president's conduct re: Ukraine but are lukewarm on the impeachment process. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen That's a long discussion. Both Bernie and Biden have somewhat carved out their own space, i.e. they have voters who are considering *only* them, which reduces volatility a fair bit. The rest of the field, consisting of candidates trying to triangulate, has been decently volatile. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2019 Hibernated