Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 23:25:33 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC It's not a new model! It's a refinement of the same underlying techniques/technology that we've used for 12 years. You're mistaken in thinking every election is sui generis. The only way to get anywhere in empirical research is to define broader reference classes of events. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC What we can definitely say is that 538's family of highly similar models have performed really well (i.e. been well-calibrated) over a large sample of elections. It's a pretty intuitive and useful reference class. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC It's as if you're saying "Sure, 538's models have been pretty good in the past. But have they ever predicted an election on a Thursday in Kansas featuring 3 candidates whose last name begins with B? No! So let's throw all of that history out". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated