Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 23:18:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC In general the changes we make from election to election are not very large. This year's primary model will be the newest thing we've done in a while in that we're trying to simulate the entire process (i.e. how one state affects the next) which we haven't done before. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC I think you're mostly wrong. There *is* enough data over 12 years of out-of-sample predictions to say quite a bit about our models, especially given that Congressional elections and primary elections give you dozens or hundreds of elections each cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC What we can definitely say is that 538's family of highly similar models have performed really well (i.e. been well-calibrated) over a large sample of elections. It's a pretty intuitive and useful reference class. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated