Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 30, 2020

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Sat Dec 07 17:29:40 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, while it's true that how well a candidate performs relative to expectations* matters, lower expectations for Biden after IA/NH struggles could make a SC win a bigger deal. * Empirically, "expectations" can be taken to mean "where the candidate is in national polls". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh, I think the conventional wisdom is right and Biden doesn't hugely mind Buttigieg doing well in Iowa. A lot of older white and African-American voters wouldn't be thrilled with a choice between Buttigieg and one of Warren/Sanders and would want to keep Biden in the race. — PolitiTweet.org

Don't think Biden should root for Pete over Warren. If Pete wins IA it'll be because moderates picked him over Bide… https://t.co/ITgcUiKubr

Posted Dec. 7, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is to say, in the branch of the tree where Biden is slumping, a Biden win in SC would likely be interpreted as a "comeback" and could therefore get him some pretty favorable attention heading into Super Tuesday. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2019 Hibernated