Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 30, 2020

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Fri Dec 06 01:39:36 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Candidates who lack elected experience actually *are* more likely to see their polls decline. They have more trouble sustaining their position, in other words. However, the effect goes away if you also control for endorsements & fundraising. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 6, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing I looked as whether experience has predictive power in the primary—experience being measured by highest elected office held (e.g. VP, senator, governor) with a discount if the candidate has been out of office for a long time. Answer is a bit complicated. — PolitiTweet.org

Here's where the model thinks the candidates "should" be in national polls given their fundraising and endorsements… https://t.co/UXm1GsnVkt

Posted Dec. 6, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So far Buttigieg, for example, the potential issue is not *exactly* lack of experience unto itself, but that the lack of experience (for various reasons) may prevent him from getting endorsements, winning "buy in" from influential party members, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 6, 2019 Hibernated