Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 30, 2020

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Thu Dec 05 20:50:36 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're a Democrat who's first choice is Warren or Sanders, which one of these people would you LEAST like to see win the nomination. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Handling the endorsement data is tricky—you need to weight recent endorsements more heavily but also account for how many people are sitting on the sidelines. Anyway, a bit too esoteric for Twitter, but the point is that there isn't a huge gap between polls and "fundamentals". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing I looked as whether experience has predictive power in the primary—experience being measured by highest elected office held (e.g. VP, senator, governor) with a discount if the candidate has been out of office for a long time. Answer is a bit complicated. — PolitiTweet.org

Here's where the model thinks the candidates "should" be in national polls given their fundraising and endorsements… https://t.co/UXm1GsnVkt

Posted Dec. 6, 2019 Hibernated