Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 30, 2020

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Thu Dec 05 17:58:44 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's where the model thinks the candidates "should" be in national polls given their fundraising and endorsements: Biden: 25% Warren: 13% Sanders: 11% Buttigieg: 9% Klobuchar: 5% Castro: 5% Booker: 4% Yang: 4% Bloomberg: 4% Bennet: 4% Not too far from where they actually are. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, I've been working on how to model the impact of money and endorsements on the primary—historically, endorsements are more predictive of polling movement but raising money doesn't hurt—and most of candidates are about where they "should" be in polls given those inputs. — PolitiTweet.org

Kinda seems like some of those "party elites" moving toward Biden after all. A fairly good run of endorsements late… https://t.co/2Jnw5OyGqa

Posted Dec. 5, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Handling the endorsement data is tricky—you need to weight recent endorsements more heavily but also account for how many people are sitting on the sidelines. Anyway, a bit too esoteric for Twitter, but the point is that there isn't a huge gap between polls and "fundamentals". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2019 Hibernated