Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Thu Nov 28 16:48:42 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol @richardmskinner I still think the worst case for Biden is a Klobuchar, Booker or Harris surprise. A lot of the others would leave him in a relatively tenable position IMO, because there will be doubts about whether the IA/NH winner can win over moderates/the establishment, black voters, or both. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...meaning, if they had gotten the national margin exactly right (Conservatives +2.4 instead of +4), they would have shown an even narrower Tory seat margin and so would have been further off from the actual seat count. Luckily for them, their errors canceled out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the weird things about the campaign press is how it vastly, vastly—like, by an order of magnitude—overrates the importance of paid media (advertising) relative to "earned media" (the volume and tone of press coverage). — PolitiTweet.org

Looking at this chart it's weird how the 2020 "what are Democrats doing wrong" debate is centering on paid digital… https://t.co/Z4DXoRq2Tl

Posted Nov. 28, 2019 Hibernated