Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 22:35:16 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the news in YouGov's poll tonight is that it has Tories up 11 UK (fairly typical of recent polls). It's no surprise that Tories would expect to win lots of seats if that's the final margin. But MRP is not magic. It's an OK/reasonable technique but its powers are overstated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Many other pollsters had the Tories winning big. So YouGov deserves much credit for getting the topline number roughly right. The MRP/model part itself (translating votes->seats) was meh though. If YouGov had Tories up 10 like other polls, their seat # would have been way off. https://t.co/jbavEu4ZBy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They had Tories +33 seats when the final result was Tories +55. That's decent as these things go because this stuff is **really hard** to model. But certainly not fantastic. Also they got a bit lucky because they *underestimated* Labour's vote share.... — PolitiTweet.org

The 2017 YouGov model did better at forecasting seat level vote shares than a regional swing model *with known vote… https://t.co/ezzTubGLmS

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated