Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 22:33:38 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For UK folks on the YouGov "MRP poll": In 2017, YouGov did well because their poll had the *overall topline vote* about right, showing only a narrow Tory margin. Their MRP model did NOT do a particularly good job of translating votes into seats, however. https://t.co/7PigHL0pSd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @hezaproject @rp_griffin Of course you can infer state-level estimates from a combination of national polls, state demographics, and other priors, manipulated in various ways. Our models have done this for years. It's a lot better than nothing but it usually sucks as compared to actual state polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Many other pollsters had the Tories winning big. So YouGov deserves much credit for getting the topline number roughly right. The MRP/model part itself (translating votes->seats) was meh though. If YouGov had Tories up 10 like other polls, their seat # would have been way off. https://t.co/jbavEu4ZBy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated