Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 24, 2020

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Wed Nov 20 20:00:09 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Somewhat related to this, but there's a big difference between say 0-1% and 3-4%. Not that either candidate is in great shape, but the one polling at 3-4% is MUCH more likely to achieve liftoff to a higher number. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As part of our primary forecast, having fun working on simulated polling trajectories that resemble real-world polling trajectories to model uncertainty in our forecast. A key thing is that polling swings can be pretty nonlinear, e.g. you can go from 6% to 20% in a hurry. https://t.co/ZUb9HHYtjz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Debates are generally more high stakes when they come at a dynamic point in the race, and this is a fairly dynamic point. Lots of candidates are seemingly on the move in the polls. Seems like a several different equilibria could emerge. So, yeah, tonight is pretty important. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 20, 2019 Hibernated