Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Tue Nov 12 18:47:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IMO an under-appreciated story is the relatively tepid numbers for Warren & Sanders in IA and NH. They're basically getting their national numbers in those states (Warren ~19-23%, Bernie ~15-17%). But those states are tailor-made for them and they should be overperforming there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing is that this latest Buttigieg surge is that he initially gained only ~1 point or so after last month's debate, but the media declared it was a huge surge ... and now he's seemingly having a more significant surge, at least in the early states. — PolitiTweet.org

Iowa Democrats poll: Monmouth Buttigieg 22% (+14 since Aug!!) Biden 19% (-7) Warren 18% (-2) Sanders 13% (+5) Klob… https://t.co/IXLVnXobfU

Posted Nov. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm It's pretty hard to game out IMO and depends a lot on the order of finish and the margins. If you have things play out *exactly* as in the polls now, e.g. a bunch of candidates grouped at 15-22% with Biden in 2nd or 3rd, that's pretty good for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2019 Hibernated