Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 13, 2020

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Wed Nov 06 13:50:58 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Perceptions that the early state polls differ from national polls are based on ignoring NV and SC and focusing only on IA and NH. That's quite problematic IMO as it vastly reduces the role of black, Hispanic and working-class Democrats, who are more plentiful in NV/SC than IA/NH. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 6, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden is at 27.5% in an average of early state polls (weighted by the number of Dems in each state). That's almost identical to his 28.6% in national polls over the same period. Warren & Sanders are actually underperforming their national polls *more* than Biden in early states. https://t.co/dxKtSUkj0f — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 6, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Maybe but I think both the partisan media (since Democrats supposedly care about racial equality) and the nonpartisan media can do a much better job of emphasizing how white IA and NH are and how nonrepresentative that makes them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 6, 2019 Hibernated