Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 4, 2020

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Thu Oct 17 16:22:17 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But I'm more agnostic how much of chance the rest of the field has *collectively*. I think it's under 50%. But if it's 20% or 30% or something, that's still quite material. 2/3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks should probably make a subtle distinction here. Are Warren and Biden considerably more likely to win the nomination than the 3rd most likely candidate, whoever that is? (IMO still probably Bernie?). Yes, IMO; there's a big drop-off after the top two. 1/3 — PolitiTweet.org

On the increasingly urgent effort by Democrats not named Biden or Warren to keep this from becoming a two-person ra… https://t.co/21QKK1Y2nV

Posted Oct. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also noteworthy that the press now seems bored by the Warren-emerges-as-frontrunner story and is looking for new angles. They may be quicker to jump on a Bernie/Harris comeback or Buttigieg/Klob/Booker surge story than they were before. 3/3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2019 Hibernated