Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Wed Sep 25 03:09:40 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I do buy that influential Democrats coming out in favor could move the numbers. (Indeed, I think it's *likely* to move them to some extent.) Also, Ukraine is new, and the dynamics may be pretty different from Russia. But there has been a lot of wishful thinking up to this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not like the surface-level numbers (e.g. the topline popularity of a certain political position) are never wrong. Lots of times they don't tell the whole story. But be wary of constantly believing that the "real" numbers are closer to what you'd like to see, personally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wrote last week I thought there was a clear top 2 in the Democratic primary, Biden and Warren, but I had Biden as "1a" & Warren as "1b". Her polling has been strong enough over the past week that I don't think even the 1a vs 1b distinction makes sense; they're co-frontrunners. https://t.co/NM4TC2nNpG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 25, 2019 Hibernated