Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Mon Sep 09 12:41:40 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also some fun stuff in there about polls vs. prediction markets. Prediction markets are way higher on Warren and way lower on Biden than they "should" be based on polls. Of course, it's OK to look at non-polling data too at this early stage, but it's an interesting discrepancy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I actually do think Biden, Warren, Sanders are the 3 most likely winners, probably in that order. But I don't think there's any sort of bright line after 3 candidates. I'm not sure Harris is much less likely than Sanders for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's at 30% nationally and 25% in IA/NH. Rather than hoping/waiting for him to implode, the other campaigns need to think: How can I get to 31% nationally or 26% in IA/NH? It's not that high a bar to clear. — PolitiTweet.org

I remember hearing so many versions of this from campaigns four years ago https://t.co/wgdVW6hRnI

Posted Sept. 9, 2019 Hibernated