Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Tue Sep 03 22:04:02 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So basically Johnson's bet is that can win a plurality because the Remain vote will be divided between Labour and LibDems, especially since Corbyn is really unpopular, whereas he can consolidate the Leave vote with his hard Brexit position. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Relatedly, the polls (which to be fair have a terrible track record in the UK and often change when a snap election is called) have shown Conservatives surging since Johnson became PM by taking away votes from the Brexit Party. https://t.co/7Wu4FizzHw https://t.co/lX1Pywtkaz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My main real insight to add here is that UK polling is (to put it kindly) often rather inaccurate, and the polls change a lot anyway when an election is called, so the outcome may be fairly random. But a random spin-of-the-wheel may still be better for BoJo than the alternatives! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2019 Hibernated